The monsoon has once again become active over Rajasthan, bringing the possibility of another spell of widespread rain across several parts of the state. The India Meteorological Department’s Jaipur centre has warned that eastern Rajasthan could experience heavy to very heavy rainfall on September 4 and September 5, while thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds are also expected in several districts.
The latest weather forecast indicates that September 4 could be particularly important for eastern Rajasthan. Moderate to intense rain is expected in parts of Bharatpur, Jaipur, Ajmer and Kota divisions as well as the Shekhawati region. The Kota division faces a higher risk, with heavy rain at isolated locations and very heavy rainfall possible at a few places.
Rainfall is also expected across parts of the Udaipur division. Meanwhile, western Rajasthan is likely to see comparatively limited activity, with isolated rainfall possible in the Bikaner and Jodhpur divisions. This shows a clear east-west difference in the intensity of the current monsoon spell.
The IMD’s subdivision-level warning issued on September 4 places East Rajasthan under a very heavy rain warning for both Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorms, lightning and squally or gusty conditions have also been included in the warning. West Rajasthan, on the other hand, has mainly been warned about thunderstorms and lightning for September 4 and 5.
The renewed rainfall activity is being supported by an active monsoon weather system. According to the Meteorological Centre Jaipur, the monsoon trough is passing through Sri Ganganagar and Narnaul before moving through a well-marked low-pressure area over northern Madhya Pradesh and adjoining southern Uttar Pradesh. Another trough extends from northeast Rajasthan towards Manipur through several weather systems across northern and eastern India.
These conditions are helping moisture reach Rajasthan and creating a favourable environment for thunderstorms and intense rain. Such systems can produce highly uneven rainfall, meaning one area may receive only light or moderate showers while a nearby location experiences a much heavier spell within a relatively short period.
Rain had already returned to parts of eastern Rajasthan during the previous 24 hours. The Jaipur weather office reported light to moderate rain at some locations in East Rajasthan, with heavy rainfall recorded at two or three places. Western Rajasthan remained largely dry during the same period.
The situation is expected to remain active on September 5. The IMD forecast indicates that districts in the Bharatpur and Kota divisions could receive heavy rainfall at isolated locations, with very heavy rain possible at one or two places. Parts of Jaipur, Ajmer, Udaipur and Bikaner divisions may also experience light to moderate rainfall.
This means residents should not assume that the rainfall episode will end after Friday. Saturday could remain another significant day, particularly for eastern districts where heavier spells are possible.
At the district level, the warnings show that rainfall intensity could vary considerably. Baran and Jhalawar are among the districts facing the possibility of very heavy rainfall on September 4, accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of around 30-40 kmph. Bundi and Chittorgarh are among areas where heavy rainfall has also been indicated.
For Jaipur district, the weather department has warned of thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds reaching around 30-40 kmph on September 4 and September 5. The broader Jaipur division is expected to receive rain during this active spell, although the most intense rainfall risk is concentrated in some other eastern districts.
The Jaipur forecast is therefore important for people planning outdoor activities, travel or festival-related movement. Short periods of intense rain can quickly cause waterlogging at low-lying locations, reduce visibility on roads and slow traffic even when the total duration of rainfall is limited.
The weather situation could become more intense in parts of the Bharatpur division on September 5. Bharatpur itself has been placed under a heavy rainfall warning for Saturday, along with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds. Similar heavy-rain warnings have been indicated for districts including Alwar, Dausa and Deeg, while Dholpur faces the possibility of very heavy rain.
People living in areas vulnerable to waterlogging or local flooding should therefore remain attentive to short-duration forecasts and nowcast warnings. Conditions during an active monsoon system can change quickly, particularly when thunderstorms develop locally.
Lightning is another significant concern during the current weather spell. The IMD has repeatedly included thunderstorms and lightning in its district-level warnings. Residents working outdoors, especially farmers and labourers, should avoid open fields, isolated trees and exposed locations when thunder is heard.
The current spell is not expected to maintain the same intensity throughout the coming week. According to the Jaipur Meteorological Centre, heavy-rain activity is likely to decrease from September 6-7. However, light to moderate rain could continue in parts of Bharatpur, Jaipur and Kota divisions.
The daily forecast suggests that on September 6 and September 7, isolated rainfall may continue mainly in the Bharatpur and Kota divisions. Western Rajasthan is expected to become largely dry during this period.
From September 8, rainfall activity is likely to decline further across most parts of Rajasthan. Isolated showers could still occur in some eastern areas, particularly around Bharatpur and Kota, but the widespread active phase is expected to weaken substantially compared with September 4-5.
The forecast therefore points to a relatively short but potentially intense spell. September 4 and September 5 are expected to be the key days, followed by a gradual reduction in heavy rainfall activity.
For Rajasthan’s agricultural areas, another round of rain can have mixed consequences. Moderate rainfall may improve soil moisture in areas that need it, while excessive rain over a short period can create waterlogging and affect standing crops. The actual impact will depend heavily on local rainfall intensity and drainage conditions.
Urban areas face a different set of challenges. Heavy showers can temporarily overwhelm drainage systems, especially where roads or low-lying neighbourhoods already have accumulated water. Commuters should be prepared for slower traffic and reduced visibility during intense spells.
Drivers should also exercise additional caution during thunderstorms. Sudden rain can make roads slippery, while water accumulation can hide potholes or uneven road surfaces. Attempting to drive through deeply flooded stretches can be dangerous because the actual depth and condition of the road underneath may not be visible.
The latest warnings are particularly relevant because thunderstorms may be accompanied by gusty winds. The district forecast mentions winds of around 30-40 kmph in several eastern Rajasthan districts. Loose outdoor objects, temporary structures and tree branches may therefore pose additional risks during strong thunderstorm cells.
The weather pattern also highlights how rainfall can differ sharply across Rajasthan because of the state’s large geographical area. While eastern Rajasthan is facing warnings for very heavy rain, western Rajasthan has a much lower rainfall risk and is mainly under thunderstorm and lightning warnings for the first two days of the forecast period.
The IMD currently shows no subdivision-level weather warning for West Rajasthan from September 6 through September 10. East Rajasthan retains a thunderstorm and lightning warning on September 6, after which the subdivision-level warning reduces significantly.
Residents should nevertheless continue checking local forecasts because district-level weather can differ from the broader subdivision outlook. Thunderstorms are highly localised weather events, and conditions can change rapidly over a matter of hours.
For Jaipur, the immediate outlook remains cloudy and rain-prone. The city and surrounding region could see thunderstorms and intermittent rain as the active system influences eastern Rajasthan. The broader forecast suggests conditions should gradually improve after the weekend as the intensity of the monsoon spell weakens.
The latest development marks another active phase of Rajasthan’s 2026 monsoon season. After comparatively quieter conditions in some areas, the strengthening weather system has once again brought rain into focus across Jaipur, Bharatpur, Kota, Ajmer, Udaipur and neighbouring regions.
For now, September 4 and September 5 remain the most important days to watch. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is possible in parts of eastern Rajasthan, while thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds could affect a much wider area. From September 6 onward, the intensity is expected to decline gradually, with a stronger reduction in rainfall activity likely across most of the state from September 8.
People in affected districts should remain alert, avoid unnecessary exposure during thunderstorms and follow official local warnings if conditions deteriorate. With monsoon systems capable of producing sudden intense showers, preparedness remains important even in locations where rainfall initially appears light.
