For years, Toyota and Subaru have been among the Japanese automakers most closely associated with dependable vehicles. Both brands have built loyal followings, particularly among drivers who want a car they can keep for many years. But a new longevity study suggests that when the target is an extraordinary 250,000 miles, or roughly 402,000 kilometres, Toyota has a surprisingly large advantage over Subaru.
The latest research from iSeeCars analyzed data from more than 395 million vehicles to estimate which brands have the best chance of reaching at least 250,000 miles. The results put Toyota comfortably at the top of the industry, while Subaru sits considerably lower in the rankings.
According to the study, Toyota vehicles have a 19.7% predicted chance of reaching 250,000 miles or more. That is 3.7 times the overall industry average of 5.4%. Subaru, meanwhile, has a predicted 250,000-mile survival rate of just 2.8%, placing it 14th among the 33 brands included in the study.
That means Toyota’s predicted rate is about seven times higher than Subaru’s at this extreme mileage threshold. It is an enormous difference, although it is important to understand what the numbers actually measure before concluding that every Toyota will outlast every Subaru.
The 250,000-mile figure is an exceptionally demanding benchmark. Reaching it means a vehicle has accumulated enough mileage to put enormous stress on its engine, transmission, suspension, axles and other major components. At this stage, even a well-maintained vehicle can require expensive repairs simply because many mechanical components have experienced hundreds of thousands of miles of wear.
Toyota’s position at the top of the new study is particularly impressive because the brand is not merely benefiting from one unusually durable model. Its overall result is based on the predicted longevity of its entire lineup, with the individual model results averaged according to how common the vehicles are on the road.
Several Toyota models have also repeatedly appeared near the top of long-term durability studies. The 2025 iSeeCars vehicle-level research, for example, placed the Toyota Sequoia first, with a 39.1% predicted chance of reaching 250,000 miles. The Toyota 4Runner followed at 32.9%, while the Highlander Hybrid reached 31.0%, the Tundra 30.0% and the Tacoma 25.3%.
That model-level performance helps explain why Toyota’s overall brand result is so strong.
Toyota’s advantage is also helped by the company’s long history of producing rugged trucks and body-on-frame SUVs. Models such as the Tacoma, Tundra and 4Runner have developed reputations for surviving demanding use, including high mileage and difficult operating conditions. The latest iSeeCars study continues to show that Toyota’s trucks and SUVs are particularly strong performers.
But Subaru’s second-place reputation in reliability should not be confused with its position in this particular longevity measurement.
The new study actually places Subaru 14th overall, behind Toyota, Lexus, Honda, Acura, GMC, Mazda, Lincoln, Ram, Ford, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Nissan and Tesla. Its 2.8% predicted chance of reaching 250,000 miles is also below the 5.4% industry average.
That result may surprise Subaru owners because Subaru continues to have a strong reputation for reliability and durability, particularly among buyers who value all-wheel drive and outdoor-oriented vehicles.
There is an important distinction here: long-term longevity and reliability are not exactly the same thing.
A vehicle can have a good reliability record without having the highest statistical probability of reaching 250,000 miles. The latest Autoblog analysis points out that longevity does not necessarily correlate perfectly with reliability rankings. In fact, Subaru ranks extremely well in a separate Consumer Reports reliability assessment cited by Autoblog, even though its predicted 250,000-mile survival rate is far below Toyota’s in the iSeeCars study.
This distinction matters for anyone shopping for a used car.
If a buyer wants a vehicle that is likely to provide dependable transportation for the next five or ten years, a 250,000-mile statistical ranking should not be the only factor considered. Maintenance history, previous ownership, accident history, mileage, engine condition, transmission condition and the specific model year can all have a major effect on the future life of an individual vehicle.
A carefully maintained Subaru with a complete service history can still be a better purchase than a neglected Toyota with an unknown history.
The iSeeCars methodology is also worth understanding. Researchers used data from more than 395 million vehicles and calculated odometer readings at different vehicle ages. They then developed a proprietary statistical model to estimate the probability that vehicles would survive to specific mileage thresholds. The brand-level results were calculated by averaging model and generation results across each manufacturer’s lineup, with weighting based on how common each model is on the road.
So the 19.7% Toyota figure does not mean that 19.7 out of every 100 new Toyotas are guaranteed to reach 250,000 miles. It is a statistical prediction based on large-scale vehicle data.
Likewise, Subaru’s 2.8% figure should not be interpreted as saying that only 2.8 out of every 100 Subaru vehicles can reach that mileage. Individual vehicles can dramatically outperform or underperform statistical averages.
Driving conditions can also change the equation.
A Toyota used primarily for highway commuting may experience a very different type of wear from a Subaru driven through severe winters, dirt roads and short trips. Likewise, two identical vehicles can have completely different lifespans depending on whether their owners follow scheduled maintenance or ignore warning signs.
Oil changes, transmission-fluid service where applicable, cooling-system maintenance, suspension inspections, brake maintenance and timely repairs can all influence how long a vehicle remains usable.
The latest numbers nevertheless reinforce Toyota’s remarkable position in the longevity conversation.
Toyota’s 19.7% predicted chance of reaching 250,000 miles is more than three times the overall industry average. Lexus follows in second place at 14.4%, Honda is third at 13.3%, and Acura is fourth at 9.5%. The fact that the top four positions are occupied by Japanese brands is another notable feature of the research.
The gap becomes even more interesting when individual Toyota vehicles are considered.
The 2025 iSeeCars study found that the Toyota Sequoia had a 39.1% predicted chance of reaching 250,000 miles, compared with 4.8% for the average vehicle in that study. The 4Runner had a 32.9% chance, while the Highlander Hybrid reached 31.0%. The Tundra and Tacoma also performed exceptionally well.
Toyota’s hybrid technology also appears to be holding up surprisingly well in the long-term data.
The Highlander Hybrid led iSeeCars’ 2025 hybrid longevity ranking with a 31.0% predicted chance of reaching 250,000 miles. The Toyota Prius reached 12.2%, while the Camry Hybrid registered 10.2%. These results challenge the idea that adding an electric motor and hybrid battery automatically makes a vehicle less suitable for extremely high mileage.
For Subaru, the lower brand-wide 250,000-mile probability does not erase the reasons many owners continue to choose the brand. Subaru’s all-wheel-drive systems, practical vehicle designs and strong owner loyalty have helped it maintain a distinct position in the automotive market.
But if the question is narrowly defined as which brand has the better statistical chance of reaching 250,000 miles, the latest data leaves little room for debate.
Toyota wins by a huge margin.
The most interesting takeaway may be that the result does not simply confirm the popular idea that Toyota makes reliable cars. It shows how dramatically the gap can widen when the standard is raised from ordinary reliability to extreme long-term survival.
At 100,000 miles, many modern vehicles can still feel relatively young. At 150,000 or 200,000 miles, maintenance history becomes increasingly important. At 250,000 miles, the vehicle enters a completely different territory where durability across major mechanical systems becomes critical.
That is where Toyota’s statistical advantage becomes especially significant.
For someone planning to keep a vehicle for an exceptionally long time, the new study provides a strong reason to look closely at Toyota models with proven long-term records. For Subaru shoppers, meanwhile, the data should not necessarily be a reason to abandon the brand, but it does suggest that model selection, maintenance history and individual vehicle condition deserve even more attention.
Ultimately, no statistical study can guarantee how long a particular car will survive. A well-maintained Subaru can go hundreds of thousands of miles, just as a poorly maintained Toyota can experience major problems much earlier than expected.
But when millions of vehicles are analyzed, patterns become difficult to ignore.
And the latest pattern is striking: Toyota has a 19.7% predicted chance of reaching 250,000 miles, compared with just 2.8% for Subaru. With the industry average at 5.4%, Toyota isn’t simply winning the Toyota-versus-Subaru longevity battle—it is operating in a completely different statistical league.
For buyers who prioritize keeping their vehicle on the road for decades rather than simply getting through the first few years of ownership, that may be one of the most important numbers to consider.
